Western New Yorkers may hope that the long, dreary 2010–11 winter will be followed by a glorious summer, but a seasonal forecast model developed by the meteorology program at Buffalo State suggests we shouldn’t get our hopes too high.

Steven Vermette, professor of geography and planning and coordinator of the meteorology program, said the program’s Bittner Seasonal Forecast Model indicates that the summer months don’t look too promising. The model, named after the student who developed it, is based on a statistical analysis of past seasonal connections in Western New York. It forecasts above- or below-average seasonal temperature and precipitation, based on a previous season’s weather. The model works best at forecasting summer weather based on conditions of the preceding winter.

“Based on this past winter’s temperatures and precipitation,” said Vermette,  “the Bittner model forecasts that we have at least a 74-percent chance of experiencing a cooler-than-average summer, and at least a 74-percent chance of experiencing a wetter-than-average summer.”

How does that compare to other forecasts?

”The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for near normal temperatures with below-normal rainfall for the lower Great Lakes region,” said Vermette. “The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for Buffalo to have equal chances of warmer, colder, or normal temperatures and equal chances of wetter, drier, and normal precipitation for the summer.”